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DTN Midday Grain Comments     05/19 10:51

   Soybean Futures Higher at Midday; Corn Mixed; Wheat Lower

   Corn futures are 2 cents lower to 4 cents higher at midday Thursday; soybean 
futures are 14 to 28 cents higher; wheat futures are 14 to 22 cents lower. 

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   The U.S. stock market is mixed with the S&P down 25 points. The U.S. Dollar 
Index is 95 points lower. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are 
firming back from early lows with crude up .25 and natural gas up .07. 
Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are firmer with gold up 29.50.


   Corn futures are 2 cents lower to 4 cents higher with strong spread action 
as we have firmed off the overnight lows during the day session as outside 
market spillover moderates. The export wire has been quiet with trade looking 
for when value buyers start to show up again while basis remains flat. Weekly 
export sales were a little better than expected at 435,300 metric tons (mt) of 
old crop and 588,500 mt of new. Ethanol margins will continue to be squeezed by 
input costs with soft driving demand and still burdensome stocks in the short 
term into late spring. The second crop in Brazil will head for the homestretch 
with drier weather in much of Brazil with some potential early frost threats 
short term. U.S. weather remains challenging for many in the short term with 
cooler weather to the north limiting drying while warmer weather to the south 
will boost crop development. On the July contract chart, we have resistance at 
the 20-day moving average at $7.96 with the lower Bollinger Band at $7.68 as 


   Soybean futures are 14 to 28 cents higher at midday with firmer spread 
action as meal works to rebalance crush margins as oil values moderate and we 
press back towards the $17.00 area up front. Meal is $10.00 to $11.00 higher, 
and oil is 70 to 80 lower with pressure as Indonesia starting lift export 
restrictions. South America is moving toward post-harvest footing at this 
point, with planting in the U.S. to continue to progress well in some areas. 
New-crop November is gaining against corn this morning, with time running short 
to hold acres. Weekly export sales were mixed with 752,700 mt of old crop and 
149,500 mt of new; meal export sales were at 293,100 of old. On the July 
soybean chart we are just above the 20-day moving average at $16.49 with the 
$17.00 area as the next level of resistance.


   Wheat futures are 14 to 22 cents lower at midday with active, two-sided 
action again overnight and into the day session as trade works to settle into a 
range after the surge to new highs. There has been little change to Plains 
weather and the UN is leading attempts to restart grain exports out of the 
Black Sea area with little substantial progress so far. The dollar has faded 
off the top of the range as well. Warmer weather is helping maturity to catch 
up a bit, while the Kansas wheat tour finds generally disappointing yields with 
the average below 40 bushels per acre (bpa). Weekly export sales were mixed at 
8,500 mt of old crop and 325,600 mt of new. KC wheat is back to a 34-cent 
discount to Minneapolis in wider action, and at a 96-cent premium to Chicago, 
firming a bit. The KC July chart has resistance at the fresh high of $13.79, 
with the open gap below the market at $12.92 filling overnight with the 20-day 
moving average well below the market at $11.97.

   David Fiala can be reached at 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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